Wilner: Cal should follow Stanford blueprint against USC

Hot off the Mercury News’ college sports blog, the College Hotline . . .

Unless Cal dominates USC from start to finish, which is just this side of impossible, the Bears would be wise to follow the advice of Oregon Coach Mike Bellotti.

"It’s all about staying in the game and giving yourself a chance," said Bellotti, who has faced both teams this season.

For our purposes, let’s call it the Stanford model — the path the Cardinal followed to its stunning upset of USC last season. The Golden Bears must follow these five steps:

1. Win the turnover battle. (Stanford had one turnover, USC five.)

2. Score on defense or special teams. (The Cardinal returned an interception for a touchdown.)

3. Be within striking range early in the fourth quarter. (Stanford trailed 16-14 with 14 minutes left.)

4. Make a drive-extending play down the stretch (Tavita Pritchard-to-Richard Sherman on fourth down.)

5. Find a way to score from the red zone in the final minutes, with the crowd roaring and the USC defense amped up. (Pritchard-to-Mark Bradford for the winner.)

Simple as that.

# Pay close attention to Cal’s success on first down. If the Bears gain 5 or 6 yards, they’ll keep the Trojans guessing. If they’re forced into second-and-long situations, the Bears are in huge trouble — the USC pass rush will come in waves.

In Cal’s only conference loss (at Arizona), 50 percent of its first-down plays in the

second half went for zero or negative yards. That won’t cut it today.

# Something to keep in mind: Cal’s Bob Gregory schemes USC as well, if not better than, any defensive coordinator in the conference.

I’ve asked Gregory about his success in the past and he’s tight-lipped (naturally). But the numbers speak for themselves: In six games, the Trojans have averaged 27.6 points against his defense, and they’ve never scored more than 35.

Given that this might be Gregory’s best defense in his seven years in Berkeley, and that USC’s offense has been inconsistent, I don’t expect the Trojans to score more than 25 or 30 points.

But can the Bears keep pace against the top-ranked defense (yards and points allowed) in the country?

# I’m curious to see how Cal tailbacks Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen perform. They’re similar in quickness and elusiveness to Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers, who ran up the gut on USC for 186 yards.

If they’re contained, Cal can’t win. Period

# The hunch here is that Stanford’s running game will give Oregon trouble this afternoon — big trouble, maybe even upset trouble.

Through the use of the spread option, quarterback scrambles and its two-back power sets, the Cardinal should render Oregon’s pass rush ineffective and wear down the Ducks’ front seven.

This is not the same Stanford team that has been trashed in Eugene the past few trips. The Cardinal has a much better chance to win than the 14-point spread indicates.

# Utah’s last-minute victory over Texas Christian on Thursday night was bad news for San Jose State and the Western Athletic Conference.

It moved the Utes within two wins (pathetic San Diego State and rival BYU) of an undefeated season. And if they run the table, they probably will nudge Boise State out of the Bowl Championship Series, even if the Broncos finish 12-0.

That would limit the available bowl berths for the WAC and SJSU.

# The Stanford basketball program received its first commitment of the Johnny Dawkins era a few days ago: from Andy Brown, a 6-foot-8 power forward from Mater Dei.

Brown had scholarship offers from Arizona, Michigan, Utah and a few West Coast Conference schools.

# Interested in admissions data for Pac-10 football programs? Here are the grade-point averages and SAT averages (over a four-year period) for players who were in school in the late 1990s through the mid 2000s.

(I don’t have any more recent figures because the NCAA stopped providing the data when many schools, embarrassed by their low numbers, complained.)

I consider it a very good guide for how things stack up, but it’s not quite gospel. Standards change slightly from school to school over time.

(GPAs listed first, then SATs)

Stanford: 3.63 and 1176

UCLA: 3.15 and 990

Oregon: 2.94 and 969

Cal: 2.93 and 984

Washington: 2.86 and 963

Oregon State: 2.84 and 928

USC: 2.80 and 955

Washington State: 2.80 and 920

Arizona: 2.76 and 948

Arizona State: 2.76 and 937

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